New data-driven simulation model projects national opioid crisis to worsen before it gets better

A significant challenge in addressing the country's opioid crisis is that policies based on past patterns of behavior may have unintended consequences because those patterns change over time. Collaborating with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Mohammad Jalali and his research colleagues have created a data-driven simulation model that incorporates key behavioral feedbacks such as social influence and risk perceptions. Called SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), the model has projected three key strategies that could save more than 100,000 lives over the next ten years.
A significant challenge in addressing the country’s opioid crisis is that policies based on past patterns of behavior may have unintended consequences because those patterns change over time. Collaborating with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Mohammad Jalali and his research colleagues have created a data-driven simulation model that incorporates key behavioral feedbacks such as social influence and risk perceptions. Called SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), the model has projected three key strategies that could save more than 100,000 lives over the next ten years.