In a recent survey study, nearly 80% of physicians overestimated the probability of successful patient outcomes following multistep medical procedures.
The findings highlight “enormous opportunities in medical education to improve the curriculum in terms of teaching the importance of probability in medical settings,” Hal Arkes, PhD, emeritus professor of psychology at The Ohio State University, said in a press release.
“Numbers are the most reliable source of correct decisions in medicine,” he added.
Arkes and colleagues conducted the study to determine how often a